Hard Drive Prices Up 40%; Shortages Possible

Recent typhoons and major flooding in Malaysia have damaged and shut down many of the country's top manufacturers, including Western Digital and Seagate. Some sources say WD may not resume production for 3-4 months; Seagate could be even longer.

Result: Prices are going through the roof and there could be shortages of certain models very soon.

If you haven't checked pricing on Newegg or other sites in the past two weeks, you're in for a rude "Shell Shocker": 1TB 3.5" drives have jumped $15-$25 each, the WD Scorpio Black 320 has gone from around $55 to $80. I've experienced similar jumps from my local wholesaler as well.

As of today, it appears a few sources (such as Fry's) haven't raised their prices as much (yet...). Over the weekend, I found and stocked up on new WD 500GB 2.5"s @ $57/each and 1TB Samsung 3.5"s @ $60/each (since I own a repair shop, I can't lose at these prices. Given the situation, I suspect prices will continue to go up until WD and Seagate are back at full production sometime next year).

The bottom line: Shop for the best deals and buy what you think you'll need over the next few months now or risk outrageous pricing and/or having to settle for lesser quality drives later.

 

UPDATE:

Although online pricing for drives (NewEgg, etc.) continues to rise, I've found a few deals. Please keep in mind these prices are from the Houston area for Walmart and as of this morning for Amazon; they may change at any time.

Walmart:

• 1TB Seagate External USB 3.0 -- $79
• 2TB Seagate External USB 3.0 -- $89 (bought nine for resale at my store. )
• 1TB WD MyBook 3.5 External -- $89
• 2TB WD MyBook 3.5 External -- $105
• 500GB Seagate 2.5 External (sold out, but still posted at $59)
• 1TB WD 2.5" External -- $99

Amazon

• 500GB Seagate 2.5" External -- $59 http://www.amazon.com/Seagate-Expan...2?s=electronics&ie=UTF8&qid=1320529374&sr=1-2 Limit one per customer.

These prices are $20-$50 less than NewEgg as of today.

 

Yup, they want to get rid of their current stock first. Get one now boys and girls. Sounds like you own a shop gman.

 

Even on current stock, I have a feeling many wholesalers and retailers have marked up prices, based on the higher wholesale costs to replenish their inventory (just like gas prices shoot up the moment someone in the Middle East sneezes). In addition - especially with the Holidays fast approaching and production still stopped - I think prices will continue to rise and shortages of certain models are a possibility.

While in the checkout line at Walmart last night (six 2TB drives in my cart), the person behind me started giggling and stated, "You know all about the hard drive shortage." I turned around; the person was a supervisor at Best Buy's Geek Squad. He told me that - during the past week when Best Buy had 500GB 2.5" externals on sale for $59 - four of the employees purchased the 100+ they had in stock (Can you say "eBay", boys and girls? Sure you can :-D ). He also felt shortages at retail are possible since PC manufacturers are also having to buy drives to build OEM systems.

In my case, I plan on selling the external drives at whatever NewEgg and Fry's are at on Black Friday. I suspect (given the current trend), 500GB externals will be at least $99; 2TB desktop externals at least $149. This should drive traffic into the store. Although my main profit is obviously on labor; making $40-$50 per drive (having hedged and purchased at the lower prices) will be some nice extra Holiday money.

 

Good luck man, I'd like to have someone like you repairing my machine, if I ever needed it. Three of your hours is a decent new mobo. I won't tell anyone else eh?:-D

 

Here in Greece very crazy situation , all hdd prices up to 40 - 50 % than a month ago !!

 

750gb wd passport se usb 3.0 on sale bestbuy 59 bucks.

what about SSD's & hybrids? I got a steal on my crucial SSD and it has been flawless... I'd hate to see the downward price trend on those reverse

 

Although HDDs are the biggest issue now, the b:***h in this is trying to figure out what other items have a large percentage of their production in the flooded out areas.

Up until now, I haven't paid much (if any) attention to where in Asia components are produced. The wild cards on SSDs are likely to be how much (if any) production was cut off by the flooding and if OEM PC mfrs. start using SSDs as a substitute for HDDs in netbooks and notebooks (with 250GB 2.5" HDDs currently as high as $100 at wholesale, the price gap is rapidly narrowing).

Here's a link that underscores the severity of the HDD issue:

http://www.basscomputers.com/hdd_flood.asp

All of my reps have told me that further HDD price increases are likely (my other main supplier, Directron, is currently selling 1TB Seagate 3.5" bare drives at $129.99, up $30 from a week ago, limit one per customer! rolleyes ).

Don't expect prices to drop until at least late Spring; don't expect the return of $59 1TB drives for at least a year.

Hopefully this will teach manufacturers a hard lesson that "backups" aren't just for data; putting up to two-thirds of the world's HDD production in a small area is/was a recipe for disaster.

 

I just scored 17 (seventeen) Western Digital Passport 320GB USB 2.0 drives on clearance at Best Buy, $47.99 each.

No guarantees the same deal will be available where you are, but it might be worth your while to stop in the one near you tomorrow morning (don't bother visiting the one at Hwy 6/Westheimer in Houston - I got 'em all ).

And no, I'm not smoking crack. :-D A picture of the shelf tag is attached.

 

I have to replace the hard drive in my son-in-law's laptop. Surprisingly a 500Gb SATA is cheaper at Best Buy ($80) than on Newegg (cheapest was $100).

Sam

 

My guess is that the buyers and merchandisers at stores like Best Buy and Walmart have either been asleep at the wheel (basing retail prices on what they paid for current stock versus restock cost) or did the same thing I did: Hedged by purchasing a s:***tload of drives as soon as the story of the flooding hit the news.

Some retailers, however, have caught up: The local Office Depot is selling 2TB external drives @ $170-$180 each.

Either way, I suspect the lower prices at BBY and Walmart will disappear once their shelves start emptying out.

 

Noob-ish thought here.:-o
If they want to get rid of there current stock now, Why wouldn't they lower the prices instead of raising them? Less expensive(should)= More Sales am I right?

 

Hard drives are neither a pershible commodity (like milk) nor a rapidly evolving technology (like CPUs). As such, there is no reason why a store would need to dump the old stock at a reduced price.

The idea of raising prices on existing stock to meet market conditions isn't price gouging; it's common sense. When prices eventually drop as supplies return to normal, it's likely the store will have inventory purchased at the higher wholesale costs it will have to reduce in price (resulting in lower profit or even a possible loss) to remain competitive. Raising the price on existing stock balances out the net profit per drive when this happens.

 

Oh Ok. Thank you.

 

More info.

What you can do about soaring hard-drive prices. By Woody Leonhard

My note: An interesting article in the Free edition.

Bazza

 

Ya, seen that mail today too bazza. I'd just backup all the important multimedia that I want to keep and hang the rest. Most of mine have been ripped off of my personal DVD's, the only things that would be problematic is finding all my youtube downloads again, the rest just takes time.

I've got 2/3rds of 2TB's left so I'm not worried. Darn thing only cost me some $120 for my WD 2TB Green, holy crap man, almost double the price now!-D

 

I've been checking out the leaked Black Friday ads; it seems that every major retailer (Staples, Walmart, Radio Shack, etc.) will have at least one external drive in the $30-$60 range (naturally, limited to the five or so on hand, no rainchecks, limit one, not responsible for injury or death sustained in the stampede, etc. :-D ).

The article in the Windows Secrets Newsletter makes some good points:

First, by attempting to keep pricing as high as possible for up to 12 months, WD, Seagate and Toshiba are working under the mantra of, "when life gives you lemons, make lemonade" - increasing their profit per drive so they end up earning as much (or more) total than before the disaster. My guess is this will end up like DDR2 memory was a few years ago - prices will stay at outrageous levels for as long as manufacturers can avoid the temptation to once again start a price war, even after manufacturing capacity is back to normal.

Second, even though there is a severe shortage at this point, Marketing 101 states, "tell consumers they can't have it and they'll want it even more." As such, it's possible external hard drives may end up as the geek version of Cabbage Patch Dolls or Tickle Me Elmo this holiday season. I'm already seeing signs of this in the completed (sold) listings on eBay.

It will be interesting to see what prices eventually peak at. I wonder if the manager of the Chase location where I have my business account would freak if I rented a safety deposit box to store my HDD inventory in? :-D

 

Ain't that the truth eh? I remember mum bringing me to one of these back in the 60's, ATT at that event it was %99.9 shrieking women looking for clothes trampling over me because I could't get out of the way fast enough. Never again and I'm now 58 instead of being dead at 10.

The frenzy is remarkable! I believe a woman died a couple of years ago after being trampled, or was it a guard?

 

My memory is a bit fuzzy on this one, but I think it was a Walmart employee at a store in New York.

 

Good news fellows , the western digital in Bang Pa-in restart the production after the disasterous floods !!

http://www.nordichardware.com/news/...starts-harddrive-production-in-one-plant.html

 

Ya that's good news but I still feel weary about even buying a hard drive within the next year or so due to quality control. I mean take this statement for instance from the very same link you provided:

I don't know about you but that just makes me feel really insecure about the coming quality, and durability of any new drives. Which will be manufactured from here on out until a year, and a half or so. Having a flood such as what has occurred in Thailand is very sad for their people. But it's also a serious thing when it involves the reopening of hard drive plants that have been severely damaged. You couldn't just take something like the Titanic out of the water, clean it up, and than have it run like new again right after it happened. It just wouldn't cut it!

Are you really going to trust your valuable data to these new stock drives?

I won't...

 

I'd like to add that any new hard drives will surely pass factory standards, they have to. Western Digital/Seagate need to make money. But bet your bottom dollar the stack will surely fall. & you'll be sorry when those drives fail. I'm not going to gamble my everyday routine on a hard drive that will surely fail. If Western Digital/Segate wants to make me feel any better they'll do a press release, as well as show footage of the newly renovated plants. Still there are some things the eye cannot see, and I love Western Digital/Seagate with all of my pc heart. But my experience tells me what's best for me.

I'll be holding out...

See your HARD DRIVE platters at the crossroads suckers!!!

:heli

 

Agreed.

Even before the flooding, the overall quality of HDDs on the market left a lot to be desired (for anyone who doubts this, go to Newegg.com and check how many drive models have a three-star or lower rating).

In my book, Hitachi has been the worst - I've never owned a Hitachi drive that went past one year without developing serious issues.

WD and Seagate - once the Gold Standards of HDDs - were already variable quality prior to the disaster. As an example, WD Black series drives in the 320-500GB range were practically bulletproof; WD's Green series are/were a failure waiting to happen right out of the box.

As previously noted, I hedged and bought several months' of inventory as soon as news of the flooding hit. Hopefully (in addition to increasing my profit), the higher quality of the pre-flood drives will also be a hedge against drive failures that result in callbacks and upset customers.

 

Nice

Agreed.

 

I understand your business sense in purchasing drives prior to the flood. But besides making money you will also ultimately need a newer drive personally. Or someone close to you [not a customer] will. All business aside you know this is where quality/durability become a factor for everyday hard drive usage. In that case you'll need a top notch drive just like everyone else. & these floods would have ruined all of our chances at achieving that. Especially from long trusted names like Western Digital/Seagate. I mean come on there are people that will go for them post flood just because of the name. Without any credible pc knowledge behind their purchasing motives. To understand that's not the best choice to make. Now I'm not saying people should go out and buy Lacies, Hitachis, and old refurbished Maxtors [if any have made their way out of hell]. I guess what I'm trying to say is, no matter what we're all between a hard rock, and a small place. Luckily I have space reserved on various drives. I purchase drive's almost every year just to expand. I guess that was a good practice of mine. Cannons to those who opposed my expansionary mindset! I told you all I'll see your hard drive platters at the crossroads before!!! Take that you vultures, these drives are, and forever will be mine!!! Muahahahahahahaha!!!

:major

As for your comment about WD GREEN drives... Ya I'll be one to agree with you on that. I've read that they are the pits man, but a small group of people escape the death of these daredevil drives. I've personally had a 2TB WD20EARS model for a year now without an issue at all. Granted as soon as I bought the drive I used Western Digital's "WDIDLE3" to change the head parking time from what I believe was 15 seconds, to something more realistic like 5 minutes or so. I can't remember what I set it to but it was a drastic change. That's one of the major reasons why those WD GREEN drives fail. I strongly suggest if anyone is knowledgeable on flashing hard drive firmware to do so on their WD GREEN drives. The constant head parking causes massive wear, and tear on the drives. I understand it was meant to save energy, as well as save the planet. But how in the hell do you save the planet when all of the WD GREEN drives start to fail, and get chucked into a landfill? Smart move WD...

I didn't want to touch on this subject because it will ultimately lead to a heated debate. & if anyone noticed my avatar is "The Terminator." So you'd better believe it I really am the damn Terminator. Don't make me appear in your room out of a flashing white orb, and take you with me to the other side! All kidding aside this is what happens when you outsource the manufacturing process of vital hardware such as hard drives in one specific geographical location. It's my understanding that Western Digital was founded in the USA. Therefore they should have the audacity to build a plant on the homeland [& I'm not even from the states]. Just to have a plant elsewhere in a less extreme weather prone geographical location. Like Savannah, Ohio, Baltimore, or between that alleyway where they sell some mean steak and cheese melts in the downtown skirts of Philly. I don't know about Seagate but I believe they were founded in the USA too. Their headquarters are there. But I may be wrong they may have started in Ireland... Regardless that's another beautiful place they could have a plant at.

In conclusion I would love for all of you to read the memo I wrote for their task masters to read:

 

I totally agree that the WD Blacks were/are almost indestructible in my limited experience when I built systems for people. Still no complaints after 5 years.

When I built my 2600K machine I went with a 2TB Green and the thing sucked from the start! Intermittent failures out of the box. Did they change their QA(quality assurance) standards?

 

I totally agree that the WD Blacks were/are almost indestructible in my limited experience when I built systems for people. Still no complaints after 5 years.

When I built my 2600K machine I went with a 2TB Green and the thing sucked from the start! Intermittent failures out of the box. Did they change their QA standards?

LOL about Hitachi's, I remember our QC department rejecting about %40 of them and screwed our production of 286's to the point that we had to ship the units driveless and have the installers retrofit them. Things don't seem to have changed much in the last 25 years.:-D

 

In deference to the poorly translated instructions that ship with most imported parts, Here's the "Engrish" answer on why hard drives (and practically every other PC component) are made in Asia:

* Smiling Asian assemble human drone be orgasmic over $30 week take-out pay.

* Bonding of union between mega manufacture owner and human only - upset Union striking out for labor pain money friend with benefits not allowed.

* Glorious country of manufacture translate "EPA" as "Extreme Pollution Allowed".

* Fire dragon marshal not parade into place of put together and bitch. As result, Foxconn plant display extreme demolition fireworks event few months ago.

 

Lol thing funniest read I all day...

On a serious note it's very sad to have heard all of this years employee loses at Foxconn. Rest in peace to all of them, my respects go out to all of their family members.

Well as far as hard drives go you can get a WD20EARS 2TB Western Digital drive locally at our city's best pc supply store for $189.99. That's crazy compared to the $100 flat rate I paid for mine at the beginning of the year.