Graphics Card Dying?

So about 3 weeks ago my computer completely shut down in the middle of playing a PC game. I thought somehow I may have gotten some malicious software and did a System restore. This completely fixed the problem for exactly a week until the same thing and same scenario happened. I did another sytem restore and it worked for a few more days. Now its been happening anywhere from every 10 mins to about 4 hours. Several times I've gotten the blue screen of death.

I did some troubleshooting, uninstalled and re-updated the drivers for my video card, replaced my hard drive (had one already that was brand new and hoping this was really the issue), reinstalled and did all updates and now i'm at having graphics issues 100% of the time. I can't even start a game, and even just browsing has a lined screen.

Based on everyones experience how sure can I be that this is a graphics card issue. Seems obvious now, but would like more assurance before buying a new one.

If so, suggestions for a new card? PC is an Alienware about 3 years old running Vista. Current card is an Nvidia (dont remember total model info but 256 mb)

 

You might try using onboard video temporarily as a troubleshooter, as well as a second monitor if available.
From your symptoms, though, sure sounds like a graphics card problem.

You might try reseating the card, making sure any fans/heatsinks are clean, etc.